Every year, March Madness delivers stunning upsets and deep runs from mid-major programs that prove they can compete with the power conference programs. While traditional powerhouses dominate the headlines, several under-the-radar teams are poised to shake up the NCAA Tournament. Whether it’s high-level guard play, lockdown defense, or lights-out three-point shooting, these teams have the ingredients for a Cinderella run. Here are five mid-major programs you need to watch out for on your bracket.
HM: Colorado St
Quick honorable mention to the Colorado St Rams for being one of the hottest teams in the country recently. They have a very slim chance for an at-large bid because of their slow start to the season, which means they have to win the Mountain West Tournament to make the field of 68. They’ve won seven straight games, including wins over Boise St and Utah St. This team is carried by star senior wing Nique Clifford, a top two player in the Mountain West. If this team continues their recent success all the way through the conference tournament, watch out for them on your bracket. The Rams would be the perfect example of a bid stealer and could be this year’s NC State.
5. Liberty
One of the most underrated mid-majors no one is talking about this year is Liberty. If the Flames can win the Conference USA tournament and get into the big dance, they are a sneaky team that can cause some chaos. This season, Liberty sits at 25-6 and at the top of the C-USA. The Flames do have a couple bad conference losses, but they also have non-conference wins over Kansas St. and McNeese. The Flames excel at shooting a ton of threes. The Flames score over 40% of their points from three point range and have three elite shooters in Kaden Metheny, Taelon Peter, and Colin Porter. On defense, Liberty does a great job at preventing their opponent from getting a quality shot, especially from three point range. The Flames opponents only shoot 27.3% from three, which is number 1 in college basketball. Liberty is an undersized team, and doesn’t get nearly any second possessions via offensive rebounds, but they do a good job controlling the glass on defense. Liberty also has two solid forwards in Zach Cleveland and Owen Aquino that average around 10 points per game and provide the Flames with offense not from three point range. Watch out for the Flames because if they are on point from behind the arc they are a dangerous team that can compete with anyone.
4. VCU
The Rams of Virginia Commonwealth, led by head coach Ryan Odom in his second year on the job, sit atop the Atlantic 10 standings, with an overall record of 25-6, and are even top-30 in the NET rankings. That makes them the third highest ranked mid-major behind only Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. The Rams proved they were legit during non-conference play by beating Power 5 opponents Boston College and Miami, while falling to Seton Hall in OT. VCU has been playing even better recently, with a record of 9-1 in their last ten games and a record of 15-3 in a solid A-10 conference. The strength of this Rams team is their defense. They allow only 62 points per game and excel at preventing their opponent from getting a good shot. Their offense is led by guards Max Shulga and Joe Bamisile, with guards Phillip Russell and Zeb Jackson also averaging in double figures. Although the Rams do not have lots of depth, they are a dangerous team with their defense and high level guard play.
3. McNeese
The McNeese Cowboys of the Southland Conference are going to the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row. Former LSU head coach Will Wade is in his second season on the job, and has done a terrific job at McNeese. The Cowboys are 26-6 this season and 19-1 in conference. McNeese does have a horrible resume and strength of schedule, but they do have close losses to good teams. The Cowboys lost to Alabama by eight and Mississippi State by three. This McNeese team is very well balanced, being able to win games in different ways. They don’t shoot nearly as many threes as mid-majors like UC San Diego and Liberty. Instead, they get lots of efficient shots from inside the arc. The Cowboys are also a great offensive rebounding team. They have four players averaging in double figures, with Javohn Garcia and DJ Richards leading the way. Garcia is a go-to guard and Richards is an elite shooter. Their point guard is former Syracuse sixth-man Quadir Copeland, who excels at running this offense and is a great passer. McNeese also plays solid defense, and their main focus is on trying to force turnovers. Another good thing about this team is that they have tons of experience. They rank top-30 in the country in D1 experience and return many guys from the team that won the Southland Conference last year. McNeese is a well-coached team that no one should ignore on their bracket this year.
2. New Mexico
Head coach Richard Pitino, son of Rick, has New Mexico playing some high-quality basketball this year. The Lobos sit atop the Mountain West with a 17-3 record in conference and have non-conference wins over UCLA, USC, and VCU. New Mexico’s overall record is 25-6 and they have only lost 3 games this calendar year. The key to their success this season has been junior point guard Donovan Dent. Dent is one of the most well-kept secrets and underrated players in college basketball. He is without a doubt a top 10 point guard in the country, and leads this Lobos team exceptionally. Pitino is able to rely on Dent to get a bucket when needed late in the game. The Lobos also have a legit big man in Nelly Junior Joseph, known as “NJJ.” With that being said, the x-factor for this team is shooting guard Tru Washington, who is the best shooter on the team. When his shooting is on point, the Lobos are hard to beat regardless of the opponent. With the trio of Dent, NJJ, and Washington, New Mexico is not a team anyone wants to see in March, and the Lobos have a solid chance to make a run in the big dance.
1. UC San Diego
Head coach Eric Olen has led UC San Diego to immediate success after their transition to division 1 basketball. In just 5 years, the Tritons have emerged as a powerhouse in the Big West Conference, sitting at 28-4 with a 18-2 record in conference. The key behind the Tritons success is their pesky defense and ability to not turn the ball over. They are at the top of college basketball in both offense turnover percentage and defense turnover percentage. On the offensive side of the ball, UC San Diego shoots a ton of threes, which is a good recipe for success for mid-majors. The Tritons score almost 40% of their points from 3-point range and are top-50 in 3P%. So not only are the Tritons shooting plenty of threes, they are making them. The majority of these threes have come from seniors Tyler McGhie and Hayden Gray, but every player on the court is a competent three point shooter. The star player on this team is senior guard Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, who is their go-to guy and averages almost 20 points per game. The weakness to this team is their soft strength of schedule and lack of size. The Tritons do have a solid non-conference win at Utah St, and a close loss at San Diego St, so they have played other tournament teams. In addition, with the aggressive defense they play I don’t think their size is a big cause for concern. With their high level three point shooting and pesky defensive strategy, UC San Diego is a team no one wants to play in March, and they have great potential to create an upset.
