My way too early 2025 Kentucky Derby winner is Sovereignty. This two year old son of Into Mischief currently has 10 points on the Derby trail. He had one of the most impressive wins in the Grade III Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs back in October.
I’m really impressed with Sovereignty’s ability to find a way to win. He came from last and ended up winning by five lengths with super slow fractions. His previous one-turn races also show that he will just improve with distance. The Godolphin homebred is trained by Hall of Famer, Bill Mott.
I chose Sovereignty because of his deep closing running style. The past few Derbys have favored deep closers such as Rich Strike and Mage. Just know when you hear Travis Stone screaming, “Sovereignty to win the Kentucky Derby,” on the first Saturday in May, you heard it first from Cullen Spalding.
Bob Baffert has six Kentucky Derby winners in his lifetime. He is the current trainer of a two-year old, who is also an Into Mischief colt, named Citizen Bull. Now, unlike the name I am very bearish on this horse. His resume is hands down the best of any two year old in North America right now.
He has won two Grade I races including the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile about a month ago at Santa Anita. This is all impressive, but the reason I’m not a fan of this horse is due to his running style. When he can’t make the lead early he falls apart. This running style has shown time and time again to not be successful in the run for the roses.
